Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Autopilot Mileage Statistics

Last Updated: April 27, 2019 Originally Posted: June 20, 2018

This page provides estimates of Tesla vehicles delivered and Autopilot miles driven segmented by Autopilot hardware version, based on the following milestones:

  • Sep-2014: Autopilot Hardware 1.0 installed (Autopilot not enabled).
  • Oct-2015: Autopilot enabled.
  • Oct-2016: Autopilot Hardware 2.0 released.

Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Autopilot Hardware

The primary source for the data on vehicle deliveries are the quarterly investor letters. We scraped these to generate a quarterly estimates of Tesla vehicles delivered (by model) with minimal interpolation. You can download the CSV with this aggregated data here: tesla_vehicles.csv. The following is the plot showing the total number of delivered vehicles, segmented by Autopilot hardware.

Two notable observations:

  1. There are over 547,895 Autopilot-capable Tesla’s on public roads.
  2. There are now more Autopilot hardware version 2 cars delivered than version 1.

Total and Autopilot Miles

I describe how I got the estimates below, but before that, let’s look at the numbers. The following is a plot of total Autopilot miles and Autopilot miles on the first and second generation of Autopilot hardware. Key mileage estimates to-date are:

  • Autopilot miles to-date: 1.36 billion miles
  • Miles in HW2+ Tesla vehicles: 4.91 billion miles
  • Miles in all Tesla vehicles: 12.9 billion miles

Details on Estimating Autopilot Miles

I started with the number of Tesla vehicles delivered by quarter and organized by Autopilot hardware version. Next, I did an estimate of per-day deliveries dating back to 2008 in a way that fits the quarterly reported delivery numbers. The resulting data can be downloaded here: tesla_vehicle_estimates_and_projections.csv.

Finally, I enumerated the number of miles driven in each vehicle under manual and Autopilot control. The resulting data can be downloaded here: tesla_autopilot_miles.csv. There are two notable periods that were accounted for:

  • Hardware 1 production started (approximately) on 2014-10-01 but Autopilot was not enabled on that hardware until 2015-10-15. Source: Elon Musk tweet.
  • Hardware 2+ production started (approximately) on 2016-10-19 but Autopilot was not enabled on that hardware until 2017-01-21. Source: Elon Musk tweet.

The data points on mileage (overall and in Autopilot) came from various sources online as listed in the Sources section below. It all boils down to an estimate of miles traveled per vehicle per day (overall and in Autopilot). This estimate has remained stable over time as the number of vehicles and miles increased.

Sources

If you use this data or numbers in your research, please cite:

@misc{fridman2019miles,
author = {Fridman, Lex},
title  = {{Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Autopilot Mileage Statistics}},
month  = apr,
year   = 2019,
doi    = {10.5281/zenodo.2530449},
}